When scientists talk about the planet warming by two or three degrees, it can sound like a small difference.
After all, the weather changes by more than that between morning and afternoon.
But global warming doesn’t work like an ordinary weather forecast, and a new United Nations report has some worrying numbers.
Released on October 21, the UN Environment Programme’s latest Emissions Gap Report warns that the world remains far from achieving the climate targets established under the Paris Agreement.
Even if countries fulfill their existing climate commitments, global temperatures are projected to rise by approximately 2.6°C above preindustrial levels by the end of the century.
Under current policies alone, the projection is closer to 2.8°C.
what does 2.6°C actually mean?
It’s not that every city will become exactly 2.6°C hotter.
It’s an increase in the Earth’s average temperature, which affects weather patterns, oceans, ecosystems and the likelihood of extreme climate events.
For Morocco, these risks are especially relevant.
The country already faces challenges involving drought, water availability, agricultural production and extreme heat.
Additional warming could make those pressures more difficult to manage.
The report also explains that keeping global warming below 1.5°C without temporarily exceeding that threshold is no longer considered achievable.
However, that doesn’t mean future outcomes are fixed.
The UN says rapid emissions reductions, expanded renewable energy and other climate measures could still limit how far temperatures rise.
The report calls for global emissions to fall by 18% by 2030 and 45% by 2035 to follow its lowest possible overshoot pathway.
The message is serious, but it’s not that nothing can be done.
How much the planet warms still depends on decisions made today.
